Your Third Proposition is to shew that America, notwithstanding the War, daily increases in Strength and Force.”

It is an undoubted Fact that America, daily increases in Strength and Force: but it may not be so easy to prove this to the Satisfaction of an European, who has never been across the Atlantick. However some Things may be brought into Consideration, which may convince, if properly attended to.

1. It may be argued from the Experience of former Wars, during all which the Population of that country was so far from being diminished or even kept at a Stand, that it was always found at the End of a War that the Numbers of People, had increased during the Course of it, nearly in the Same Ratio as in Time of Peace. Even in the last French War which lasted from 1755 to 1763, during which Time, the then American Colonies, made as great Exertions, had in the Field as great a Number of Men, and put themselves to as great an Expence, in Proportion to the Numbers of People, as the united States have done during this War; it was found that the Population had encreased nearly as fast as in times of Peace.

2. If you make Enquiry into the Circumstances of the different Parts of America at this day, you find the People in all the States pushing their Settlements out into the Wilderness, upon the Frontiers, cutting down the Woods and subduing new Lands, with as much Eagerness and Rapidity, as they used to do in former Times of War or Peace. This Spreading of the People into the Wilderness, is a decisive Proof of the increasing Population.

3. The only certain Way of determining the Ratio of the Increase of Population is by authentic Numerations of the People, and regular official Returns.1 This has I believe never been done generally in former Wars, and has been generally omitted in this. Yet some States have made these Returns. The Massachusetts Bay for Example, had a Valuation about the year 1773 or 1774, and again the last year 1779 they had another. In this Period of five years, that State was found to have encreased, both in Number of People and in Value of Prop-210erty, more than it ever had grown before in the Same Period of Time. Now the Massachusetts Bay, has had a greater Number of Men employed in the War, both by Land and sea in Proportion to the Numbers of her Inhabitants than any other state of the thirteen. She has had more Men killed, taken Prisoners, and died of sickness, than any other state: Yet her growth, has been as rapid as ever—from whence it may be fairly argued that all the other States have grown in the same or a greater Proportion.

4. It has been found by Calculations, that America, has doubled her Numbers even by natural Generation alone, upon an Average, about once in Eighteen Years. This War has now lasted, near six Years. In the Course of it, We commonly compute in America that We have lost by sickness and the sword and Captivity, about five and thirty Thousand Men. But the Numbers of People have not increased less than Seven hundred and Fifty thousand, souls, which give at least an hundred Thousand fighting Men. We have not less probably than seventy thousands of Fighting Men in America, more than We had, on the day that Hostilities were first commenced on the 19 of April 1775. There are near Twenty thousand Fighting Men Added to the Numbers in America every Year. Is this the Case with our Ennemy, Great Britain? Which then can maintain the War the longest?

I have the Honour to be &c.

5. If America increases in Numbers, she certainly increases in Strength. But her Strength increases in other respects. The Discipline of her Armies increase. The skill of her Officers, increase by Sea and Land—her skill in military Manufactures, such as those of Salt Peter, Powder, Fire Arms, Cannon, Musquets, increases. Her skill in Manufactures of Flax and Wool for the first necessity, increases—her Manufactures of salt also increases, and all these are Augmentations of Strength and Force to maintain her Independence. Further her Commerce increases every Year—the Number of Vessells She has had this Year in the Trade to the West Indies—the Number of Vessells arrived in Spain, France, Holland, and Sweeden, shew that Her Trade is greatly increased this Year.

But above all her Activity skill Bravery and success in Privateering, increases every Year. The Prizes she has made from the English this Year, will defray more than one half of the whole Expence of this Years War. I only submit to your consideration a few Hints which will enable you to Satisfy yourself by Reflection, how fast the Strength and Force of America increases.

I have the Honour to be

Your fourth Question is, whether America, in and of itself, by means of purchasing or exchanging the Productions of the several Provinces, would be able to continue the War, for 6, 8 or 10 years, even if they were entirely deprived of the Trade with Europe, or their Allies exhausted by the War and forced to make a Seperate Peace were to leave them.

This is an extreme case. And where is the necessity of putting Such a Supposition! Is there the least appearance of France or Spain being exhausted by the War? Are not their Resources, much greater than those of England, Seperated as she is from America? Why should a Suspicion be entertained that France or Spain will make a seperate Peace? Are not these Powers Sufficiently interested in seperating America from England? All the World knows that their maritime Power, and the Possession of their Colonies depend upon Seperating them? Such Chimaeras as these are artfully propagated by the English1 to terrify Stockjobbers, but thinking Men, and well informed Men know that France and Spain have the most pressing Motives to persevere in the War. Besides Infractions so infamous, of Solemn Treaties made and avowed to all Mankind are not committed by any nation. In short no Man who knows any Thing of the real Wealth and Power of England on one hand; and of the Power and Resources of France, Spain and America on the other, can believe it possible, in the ordinary Course of human Events and without the Interposition of Miracles, that France and Spain should be So exhausted by the War, as to be forced to make a Seperate Peace.

The other Supposition here made is equally extreme. It is in the nature of Things impossible that America should ever be deprived entirely of the Trade of Europe. In opposition to one extream I have a Right to advance another. And I Say that if all the maritime Powers of Europe, were to unite their Navies, to block up the American Ports, and prevent the Trade of Europe they could not wholly prevent it. All 212the Men of War in Europe would not be sufficient to block up a seacoast of 2000 Miles in Extent, varied as that of America is by such an innumerable Multitude of Ports, Bays, Harbours, Rivers, Creeks, Inlets and Islands, with a Coast so tempestuous that there are many Occasions in the Course of the Year, when Merchant Vessells can push out and in altho Men of War cannot cruise. It should be remembered, that this War was maintained by America for Three Years, before France took Any Part in it. During all that Time the English had fifty Men of War upon that Coast which is a greater Number than they ever will have again: yet all their Vigilance was not Sufficient to prevent American Trade with Europe. At the worst Time We ever saw, one Vessell in three went and came Safe. At present there is not one in four taken. It should also be remembered that the French Navy have never untill this Year, been many days together upon the American Coast. So that We have in a sense maintained the Trade of the Continent five Years against all that the English navy could do, and it has been growing every Year.

Why then should We put cases that We know can never happen. However I can inform you, that the Case was often put, before this War broke out. And I have heard the common Farmers in America reasoning upon these Cases seven years ago. I have heard them Say, if Great Britain could build a Wall of Brass, a thousand feet high2 all along the seacoast at low Water Mark, We can live and be happy. America is most undoubtedly capable of being the most independent Country upon Earth. It produces every Thing for the Necessity, Comfort and Conveniency of Life, and many of the Luxuries too. So that if there were an eternal Seperation between Europe and America—The Inhabitants of America would not only live but multiply, and for what I know be wiser, better, and happier, than they will be, as it is.

That it would be unpleasant, and burthensome to America to continue the War for 8 or 10 Years, is certain: but will it not be unpleasant and burdensome to Great Britain too? There are between 3 and four millions of People in America. The Kingdom of Sweeden, that of Denmark, and even the Republick of the united Provinces have not each of them many more than that Number. Yet these States can maintain large standing armies even in time of Peace, and maintain the Expences of Courts And Governments much more costly than the Government of America. What then should hinder America from maintaining an Army sufficient to defend her Altars, and her 213Firesides? The Americans are as active as industrious and as capable as other Men. America could undoubtedly maintain a regular Army of Twenty thousand Men forever. And a regular Army of Twenty thousand Men, would be Sufficient to keep all the Land Forces that Great Britain can send there, confined to the Seaport Towns under cover of the Guns of their Men of War. Whenever the British Army shall attempt to penetrate far into the Country the regular American Army will be joined by such Reinforcements from the Militia, as will ruin the British Force—By desertions, by Fatigue, by sickness and by the sword in occasional skirmishes, their numbers will be wasted and the miserable Remainders of them Burgoined.

I have the Honour to be &c.