The writer on the consequences of American independency proceeds, “It has been asserted, that America will be led, from motives of interest, to give the preference in trade to this country, because we can supply her with manufactures cheaper than she can raise them, or purchase them from others.”1—He has not favoured us with his opinion, whether we can supply them cheaper than others. If we can, the consequence is certain, that though independent, they will trade with us, in preference to others. If we cannot, they will trade with others, in preference to us, though they should again become dependent.—They now know the world, and they will make use of it, and the world will make use of them. Dependent, or independent, it will make very little difference. It is not doubted, at present, that we can sell our commodities to them cheaper, and give them a better price for theirs than other nations. But how long will this last? Certainly not long, if the war continues.

That we, or any other nation in Europe, can supply her with 575manufactures cheaper than she can raise them, in time of peace, is most certain. Europe has a warrantee upon America for this for centuries to come, in the immense regions of uncultivated lands. It is demonstrably certain, that so long as wild land is to be had cheap, and it will be for centuries so long, America will continue to exchange the productions of her agriculture for the manufactures of Europe. So long the manufacturers, who may emigrate from Europe, will soon be metamorphosed into farmers, because they will find, as they always have found, that they can advance themselves and their children the faster by it.

It is very true, “that she possesses, and can produce a greater variety of raw materials, than any other country on the globe,”2 but it by no means follows, that it will be her interest to manufacture them, because a day's labour, worth two shillings, in a manufacture, produces but two shillings, whereas a day's labour, on wild land, produces the two shillings in immediate production, and makes the land itself worth two shillings more. We may, therefore, absolutely depend, that at a peace, America will have her manufactures from Europe, and, if it is not our fault, from us.

But, continues the writer, “a commercial alliance is already ratified, greatly injurious to the trade of Great Britain.”3 The commercial alliance with France engages a free trade between those two nations. We may make a commercial alliance with America, and engage a free trade with her too. There is no article in the treaty with France which gives her any exclusive privilege in trade, or that excludes Great Britain from any branch of American trade. It is at this moment as open and free to us, as any other nation, and it is our imprudence that we are throwing it away. Do we suppose that France will give up the benefit she has obtained by this treaty? Is not the commerce, the navy, the independence, and existence of France as a maritime power, at stake? Does it not depend upon American independence? If it does not, it will depend upon her rendering the Colonies, after a mock submission, useless to us, by fomenting continual broil, and wars between us and them; and upon getting that commerce clandestinely, that by the treaty she may have openly. Will she not contend as earnestly for her independence and existence as we do for a chimera? The commercial treaty with France is no otherwise injurious to the trade of Great Britain, than as it is a breach of our monopoly, which is broke in an hundred ways, and never to be repaired, if this treaty were annulled.

“Should France succeed in supporting American independence, no 576one can doubt that other treaties, still more injurious, will be added.”4—Does he mean that America will make treaties of commerce with other maritime nations? This she will do; but upon the same footing of equality, freedom and reciprocity; without excluding us, unless we drive her to despair and revenge, and the same passions that we now indulge against her. Make peace now, and you are safe against all unequal treaties. Other nations must have an equal right to American trade with France and us. The maritime powers all see it, and we may depend upon it, they will take care to secure themselves both against us and France. “When America shall have a separate and distinct interest of her own to pursue, her views will be enlarged, her policy will become exerted to her own benefit.”5

Does this writer suppose the Americans so ignorant and stupid as not to know this, as well as he? Does he coolly think that they wish to have their views contracted, and their policy exerted against her own benefit, as it used to be, or to the benefit of others, exclusive of her own. It must be an icy soul indeed that can wish itself smaller, or that can desire to have its understanding employed against itself. Is this an argument to prove that the far greater part of the people wish to return to our Government? This would be narrowing their views indeed; but this writer may be assured that this evil, if it be one to us, is already done; their views are already enlarged, they know one another; they know us; and they know the rest of Europe better than ever they did. They know what they are capable of, and what Europe wants.

“Her interest, instead of being united with, will become not only different from, but opposite to that of Great Britain.”6 While we continue her enemy, it is her interest to weaken us as much as she can. But nothing can be clearer, than that her interest will not be opposite to that of any power in Europe, that will trade with her. She will grow; and every power in Europe that trade with her, will grow too in consequence of that trade, and ours more than any other.

“She will perceive that manufactures are the great foundation of Commerce.”7 The productions of agriculture are a foundation of commerce, as well as manufactures are.

“That commerce is the great means of acquiring wealth.”8 But manufactures are not the foundations of her commerce, nor is commerce her great means of acquiring wealth. Agriculture, and the continued augmentation of the value of land by improvement, are the great source of her wealth: and agriculture9 and commerce are but secondary objects, which do not bear a proportion to the former 577of one to twenty. It is her interest to attend to manufactures for filling up interstices of time, and no farther: and to commerce, to send her superfluous productions abroad, and bring back what she wants, and to be carriers, for the sake of selling her ships and commodities; but all her commerce and manufactures center and terminate in the improvement of land, and will infallably continue to do so, as long as there shall remain wild land in America: so that it is politically impossible, that she should ever interfere with Europe, either in manufactures or commerce, for centuries to come. In the nature of things she can carry on no manufactures and no commerce which will not be useful to Europe, instead of interfering with it, and to us more than any other, if we would cease our absurd hostilities.

“Bounties will be granted to encourage manufactures, and duties laid to disencourage or prohibit foreign importations!”10 Will the farmers vote away their money to encourage manufactures, when they can import them cheaper? Will merchants give theirs to strip themselves of the profit of importing? And where is the manufacturing interest to vote at all? All this is against reason and universal experience; a clearer demonstration of this cannot be given than in the instances of salt petre and salt.

Bounties have been given this war upon these articles, manufactured in America, because we would not suffer them to import them. And such is the ingenuity and invention of these people, that hundreds of tons of salt petre were produced in a few months, and the women learned to make it in their families, as they make soap. Salt works were erected upon the sea coast of the whole Continent, and they are now able to supply themselves with these articles, when they can't get them from Europe; but it is at the expence of the interest of agriculture, and when their trade began to open again, these manufactures declined; and they now revive and decline, like ebb and tide, as there happens to be scarcity or plenty imported—and thus it must be.

To illustrate his argument on the Consequences of American Independence, the Writer subjoins, a Comparison, between the united States and the West Indies. He Says the Exports from England were in 17712

“If We reflect on the Extent of Territory, improved and improvable, the Numbers of People, of Mariners, of Shipping, naval Force, raw materials, and Consumption of manufactures, he hopes We should confess the Continent of more Importance than the Islands.”3 He compares them 1. in Point of Extent of Territory. 2. Salubrity of Clymates. 3. Numbers of Inhabitants capable of Warring for the Empire, whereas the Islands are a dead weight in case of War.4 4. Variety of Clymates. If the West Indies furnish Rum, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Pimento and Ginger. The Continent produces Wheat, Rye, Barley, Oats, Indian Corn, Rice, Flour, Biscuit, Salt Beef, Pork, Bacon, Venison, Cod, Mackarel, and other Fish and Tobacco. If the West Indies produce Some materials for Dyes, as Logwood, Fustick, Mahogany and Indigo; the Continent produces Indigo, Silk, Flax, Hemp; Furs and skins of the Bear, Beaver, otter, Muskrat, Deer, Tyger, Leopard, Wildcat, Fox, Raccoon; and Pot ash and Pearl ash, Copper, and Lead ore, Iron in Pigs and Bars, for our manufactures; besides all the Articles of naval Stores, Timber, Plank, Boards, Masts, Yards, ships for sale, Pitch, Tar, Turpentine, Hemp, and Salt Petre. Such of these Articles as are necessary for the manufactures and Commerce of England were sent there: the surplus only to other Marketts, and the proceeds of that surplus remitted in Bills of Ex-579change or Cash for British manufactures and foreign articles of Commerce.”5

As to the Consumption of Manufactures, America would demand and consume, if Peace were now made as many and more of our manufactures than she ever did, because her Numbers have greatly increased Since this Trade was interrupted. As to our supplying them again with foreign Articles of Commerce it is chimerical in Us, to expect it: neither America, nor foreign nations will submit to it. As to the long roll of Articles, which contribute to political, military and naval Power, it is extravagant to hope ever to regain them. All mankind are interested and have the most pressing Motives to Sunder them from Us. They would make Us an universal monarchy.

Power is intoxicating, encroaching and dangerous, in Nations, as well as Individuals. Surrounding nations are jealous, and envyous of a Power that they see growing too formidable for their Safety. Examples are innumerable. Spain under Charles the 5th.—France under Louis the 14th. were thought by the Powers of Europe to have become dangerous, and allmost all the World united to lessen their Power. How did Portugal break off from Spain? how did she maintain her Independency? how does she hold it now—but because that England, France Holland and other Powers, will not see her again annexed to the Spanish monarchy, Situated as Portugal is, if she were annexed to Spain it would make her dangerous to the other maritime Powers. How did Holland maintain her Independency? but by the determined Aid of England, and France? How did the Cantons of Switzerland maintain theirs?6

We are arrived at the Period long since foreseen and foretold, by cooler and deeper Thinkers than this Pamphlateer. It is an Observation of a sage and amiable Writer of the French nation, who has as much respect for England and as little for America as any impartial man in Europe, De Mably, “That the Project of being sole Master of the Sea, and of commanding all the Commerce, is not less chimerical, nor less ruinous than that of Universall, Monarchy, on Land. And it is to be wished for the Happiness of Europe, that the English may be convinced of this Truth, before they shall have learned it by their own Experience. France has already repeated several Times, that it was necessary to establish an Equilibrium, or Ballance of Power, at Sea: and she has not yet convinced any Body because she is the dominant Power, and because they suspect her to desire the Abasement of the English, only that she may domineer the more surely, on the Continent. But if England abuses her Power and would exercise 580a Kind of Tyranny over Commerce, presently all the States that have Vessells and sailors, astonished that they had not before believed France, will join themselves to her to assist her in avenging her Injuries. Principles of Negotiation” p. 90.7

The Present Conjuncture of affairs, resembles so exactly the Case that is here Stated that it seems to be a litteral fulfillment of a Prophecy. A Domination upon the sea is so much the more dangerous to other commercial nations and maritime Powers, as it is more difficult to form Alliances and combine Forces at Sea, than at Land. For which Reason it is essential, that the sovereigns of every commercial state, should make his national Flagg be respected, in all the Seas and by all the nations of the World. The English have ever acted upon this Principle, in supporting the Honour of their own, but of late years, inflated with intoxicating dreams of Power, they have grown less and less attentive to it, as it respects the Honour of other Flaggs. Not content with making their Flagg respectable We they have grown more and more ambitious of making it terrible. Unwilling to do as they would be done by, and to treat other commercial nations as they insisted Upon being treated by them, they have grown continually more and more haughty, turbulent, and insolent upon the seas, and are now never Satisfied untill they make all other nations see and feel, that they despise them upon that Element.8 We have not only invaded the universal Liberty of the Americans, by cutting up by the Roots their ancient forms of Government, and endeavouring to subject them to a foreign Legislature in all Cases: but We had endangered the Liberty of France upon the Seas. Her Commerce, her Navy, her West India Islands her Fisheries, her East India Possessions, had all been entirely at our mercy, if North America had continued to this day a Part of the British Empire: We equally endangered the Liberty of Spain, her Fleets, her Islands, and the Communication between her Country and her Colonies would have been in our Power. What would have become of Holland? With what unbounded Contempt have We treated her. Her Liberty upon the seas, is so little respected by Us, that We annull at Pleasure all Treaties ancient and modern, and seize ships without a Colour of Law. The other maritime Powers are all now more attentive to Commerce than ever. They see America is necessary to their Views of Commerce. Each one of them sees that she must have a share of American Commerce or she cannot maintain her maritime Independency, her Liberty upon the seas. She sees also that if any one commercial nation of Europe were to enjoy an exclusive monopoly 581 image in America, that no other maritime Power could preserve her Liberty. No Wonder then, that We see such Unanimity of Sentiment among the maritime Powers. No Wonder that all the sons of Neptune, are united to preserve the Independence, the Freedom and sovereignty of his Reign from our Invasions.

5. The Growing State of the Colonies, on the Continent which appears by the Exports.

The Exports from Scotland to America are not included; when added they will increase the value of the Exports from Great Britain to Upwards of 6,000,000: 0: 0 which is nearly equal to the amount of all the foreign Exports of the Kingdom, and one half of the whole Commerce of the nation, exclusive only of that to Ireland and the East Indies.10

It is reported that these Facts and Estimates were all laid before 582the American Congress in the Year 1774 when this Writer was a member.11 They were minutely examined and thoroughly weighed, and with the most unfeigned sincerity it was wished and prayed by all, and with the most Sanguine Confidence expected by many, that they would occur to our Parliament, and prevent them from disaffecting by a perseverance in Impolicy and Injustice, So precious a Part of the dominions. Others who had studied more attentively the Character of this nation, and the Relations of America with Europe, had Strong Fears that nothing would Succeed. They have been found to have judged right. The Americans lament the Misfortunes of the English, but they rejoice in the Prospect of Superiour Liberty, Prosperity and Glory to the new World, that now opens to View, in Consequence of our Errors. They rejoice also at the destruction of that selfish and contracted monopoly which confined the Blessings, of that Quarter of the World to a single nation and at the liberal Extension of them to all mankind.

I shall conclude all with one observation upon the ability and Resources of America to continue the War and finally support their Independency. By the Resolutions of Congress of the 18 of March last, they redeem their two hundred millions of Paper dollars, at the Ratio of 40 Paper for one silver, which it seems is a full allowance, which makes the whole Value of their Paper Bills abroad of the Value of five millions of silver dollars, or 1,102,500 £ sterling.12

They have also resolved that the Loan office Certificates shall be paid in Proportion to the Value of money at the time they were issued, which is the only equitable Way,13 and these added to the 1,102,500 in Bills and to their debt contracted in Europe makes the whole amount of the national debt of the United states amount to about five millions sterling. Thus they have conducted this whole War, for five years for five millions, one Million a Year. According to the Estimate of this Writer the Exports from North America in 1773, were 6,400,000 Pounds. The whole Expence of five Years War, has not then amounted to the Value of one Years exports.

Compare this with our Expences. Lord Norths Loan only this Year is Twelve Millions. According to the Estimate of this Writer the whole Exports of Great Britain to foreign Countries North America and the West Indies, amounted in 1771 to 12,762,530:19: 4. Thus We borrow annually to maintain the War a sum equal nearly to our whole Exports.

Let a cool man judge, whether We or they can support the War longest. Let Us soberly reflect, what Burden this debt is to America. 583It has been said that all the Colonies together, contracted in the Course of the last French War a debt of Ten Millions, double their market. Which was all nearly discharged before this War began. Be this as it may, I am well informed that the Province of the Massachusetts Bay alone, raised by Taxes half a Million and by Loan half a Million more, in the Course of the last War, and that before this War broke out it was all paid off. The Province of Massachusetts now has double the Number of Inhabitants she had in the middle of last War. Let this War continue as long as it will our debt will accumulate twice as fast, four times as fast in Proportion to our Abilities, as the American will. And at the End this Affecting difference, that in a very few Years she will pay the Utmost Farthing of the Principal, and We shall be very happy, if We can pay the annual Interest.

We knew not the Resources of America. We knew not the Resources in their Minds and Hearts. There are deep and great Virtues and Profound abilities in that People that We have not yet put to Tryal nor called forth to Action. Her Agriculture Manufactures and Commerce, are Resources, that We have no Idea of. But she is now recurring to another Resource that We neither understand nor can bear to practice. Oeconomy. They are striking off, every useless officer and office in their Army their navy, their civil departments and otherwise to save Expences, and in future they will conduct the War at half the Expence of the past. America is the best Friend We can have Upon Earth—and We shall find her, if We will not suffer her to be our Friend, our most fatal Ennemy.